A War of Attrition: Who’s Burning Out First?

As the cycle of attacks between the US and Iran escalates, it has become increasingly clear that both sides cannot sustain this pace for much longer. Despite claims from both nations that they are not interested in negotiations or a ceasefire, economic and political pressures are taking their toll.

For Iran, the war is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it has allowed Tehran to test its military capabilities and assert dominance in the region. However, the human cost has been high, with thousands of casualties on both sides, including civilians caught in the crossfire. The economic toll is equally significant: decades of US sanctions have crippled Iran’s economy, making it increasingly difficult for the country to fund its military interventions.

The impact of these sanctions has been brutal. Oil exports have dropped from 2.2 million barrels per day in 2012 to 1.5 million bpd in 2025, and GDP per capita has plummeted from $8,000 in 2012 to $5,000 in 2024.

Meanwhile, the US is facing its own set of challenges. The war on Iran has been highly unpopular among Americans, with a recent YouGov poll showing that 57% believe it was the wrong decision by the Trump administration. The war looms uncomfortably over Republicans as midterm elections approach in November, when the party risks losing its congressional majority.

Crude prices have surged by 12 percent following the latest wave of US attacks on Iran, and petrol prices at US stations have reached $4.63 per gallon ($1.22 per liter) in May – a significant increase from pre-war levels. This is reflected in living expenses across the country, making the war increasingly unpopular with Americans.

The US has also been running low on certain munitions, including seven of its most powerful and expensive types. At least four of these saw half their stockpiles depleted in the first phase of the war. The US has focused on striking Iran with these high-end weapons, but replenishing them may be a challenge – especially if the war continues.

Regional diplomacy has been spurring Gulf countries to tighten military cooperation by sharing data and coordinating warning systems. Pakistan, the principal mediator between the US and Iran, has urged both sides to end the latest wave of violent attacks and hold talks. It’s time for Washington and Tehran to listen – before it’s too late.

The stakes are high, but one thing is certain: neither side can afford to keep up this war of attrition much longer. The question now is: who will blink first?